Most flaming big fixed income convertible bond Bai

2022-08-12
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[Everbright fixed income │ convertible bonds] Baidian convertible bonds () new bond pricing report: electrical equipment manufacturers promoting product diversification, careful subscription of

[Everbright fixed income │ convertible bonds] Baidian convertible bonds () new bond pricing report: electrical equipment manufacturers promoting product diversification, careful subscription of

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the author of this article

Zhang Xu/Wu Liang/shaochuang

Abstract

▌ the company provides electrical equipment and services for rail transit, UHV, smart electricity and other fields

(,) () mainly provides complete sets of electrical equipment, solutions and operation and maintenance services in rail transit, UHV, smart electricity and other fields. In terms of products, the revenue of complete sets of switchgear accounted for 62.02% of the company's operating revenue (2018), and the revenue of power capacitors accounted for 30.00%. In 2018, the company achieved an operating revenue of 2.576 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.84%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 170 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.98%. The raised funds issued by the company are mainly used to build a high-end intelligent distribution equipment industrial base to better meet the diversified needs of downstream customers

▌ the value of the pure bond is 86.16 yuan, and the YTM is 2.41%. The protection effect of the bottom of the bond is weak.

the issuance period of the white electricity convertible bond () is 6 years, the six-year coupon rates are 0.3%, 0.5%, 1.0%, 1.5%, 1.8% and 2.0% respectively, and the redemption price at maturity is 110 yuan (including the last interest), and the corresponding YTM is 2.41%. The credit rating of the debt is aa (China Securities PENGYUAN). Calculated according to the maturity rate of six-year AA medium-sized debt (5.0361%) on November 12, 2019, the value of the pure debt is 86.16 yuan, and the protection effect of the bottom of the debt is weak

▌ the conversion value is 96.00 yuan, and the convertible bond conversion has great pressure on the overall market.

the closing price of the positive stock on November 12, 2019 is 8.63 yuan, the initial conversion price is 8.99 yuan, and the corresponding conversion value is 96.00 yuan. The issuance scale of the convertible bonds is 880 million yuan. If the initial conversion price (8.99 yuan/share) is fully converted, the company's circulating share capital will increase by 98 million shares, and the circulating share capital will expand by 23.93%, which is under great pressure. The main terms of the convertible bond are regular

▌ the expected listing price is between 106 and 108 yuan, and the central bank is 107 yuan

we select convertible bonds that meet the following three conditions for comparison: 1) the conversion value on November 12, 2019 is between 92 and 100 yuan, 2) the bond balance is less than 5billion yuan, and 3) the debt rating is AA. The premium rate of the seven eligible convertible bonds on November 12, 2019 is mainly in the range of 10% to 19%. Considering that the positive stock volatility of white power convertible bonds is significantly lower than that of comparable bonds, we expect the initial premium rate of white power convertible bonds to be in the range of 10% to 13%, the listing price is in the range of 106 to 108 yuan, and the central is 107 yuan

▌ the winning rate is expected to be about 0.046%. Investors are advised to apply cautiously.

in general, the company provides electrical equipment and services for rail transit, UHV, smart electricity and other fields. The funds raised are mainly used to build a high-end intelligent distribution equipment industrial base. The net debt value of convertible bonds is 86.16 yuan, and the YTM is 2.41%. The protection effect of bond bottom is weak, and the pressure of convertible bonds to equity is large. The listing price of convertible bonds is expected to be in the range of 106 to 108 yuan, and the central bank is 107 yuan. The winning rate is expected to be about 0.046%. Investors are advised to apply cautiously

▌ risk tips

downstream demand did not meet expectations, bad debt losses of accounts receivable were higher than expected, and the family controlled the risk

1. Fundamentals of the company

Baiyun electric () is a leading provider of integrated power and energy solutions in China, providing complete sets of equipment, solutions and operation and maintenance services in the fields of rail transit, UHV, smart electricity, major industrial users and so on. The company has the largest production base of intelligent electrical switchgear in South China and the largest production base of UHV power capacitors in the world. It is a key high-tech enterprise in the national torch plan. In the field of urban rail transit, the company has participated in the construction of rail transit in 24 cities including Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, with a city coverage rate of 69%, and is one of the enterprises with the highest business coverage in the field of urban rail transit in China. In the field of UHV/UHV, Guilin Power Capacitor Co., Ltd., the holding subsidiary of the company, has the world's largest UHV power capacitor production base, ranking the top two in the total industrial output value of the power capacitor industry from 2015 to 2017

in terms of products, the revenue of the company's complete switchgear in 2018 was 1.587 billion yuan, accounting for 62.02% of the operating revenue, and the revenue of power capacitors was 767 million yuan, accounting for 30.00% of the operating revenue

by the end of September 2019, the controlling shareholder and actual controller of the company were the five brothers and sisters of Hu (Hu Mingsen, Hu Minggao, Hu Mingcong, Hu Mingguang and Hu Heyi), with a total shareholding ratio of 63.72%. In addition, Baiyun electric group, controlled by the children of the five brothers and sisters of Hu, held 7.44% of the shares of the company. In terms of equity pledge, according to the company's on November 13, 2019, the cumulative number of pledged equity of the company's controlling shareholders (Hu's five brothers and sisters) and their concerted actors (Baiyun Electric Group) accounted for 28.54% of the company's total share capital. In terms of lifting the ban on restricted shares, part of the shares held by Baiyun group (fixed increase Placement Shares) will be lifted in February 2021, accounting for 7.44% of the total share capital of the company

the company achieved an operating revenue of 2.576 billion yuan in 2018, with a year-on-year increase of 17.84%, and the growth rate increased by 6.87 percentage points compared with 2017. For the damage tolerance method, the finite element method is mainly used to confirm the true stress at the crack tip. A more accurate crack tip stress distribution profit of 170 million yuan can be obtained by encrypting the attachment lattice at the crack tip, a year-on-year decrease of 15.98% and an increase of 11.92 percentage points over 2017

in terms of single quarter split, the company achieved an operating revenue of 686 million yuan in 3q2019, with a year-on-year increase of 11.06%, an increase of 47.27 percentage points over 2q2019. 3q2019 achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company of 84 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 138.48%, an increase of 350.56 percentage points over 2q2019

from the perspective of valuation level, on the trading day before the announcement date of convertible bond issuance (November 12, 2019), the price earnings ratio (TTM) of the company's shares was 35.1x, slightly lower than the average value of recent three years (38.4x), and the price to book ratio (LF) was 1.7x, significantly lower than the average value of recent three years (2.5x)

2. Arrangement for convertible bond issuance

on November 13, 2019, Baiyun electric () published the prospectus and the issuance announcement, and publicly issued Baidian convertible bonds (). According to the issuance announcement, on November 15, the original shareholders (registered after the closing of the market on November 14) can participate in the priority placement (placement of 1.947 yuan of convertible bonds per share), and they need to pay full funds when applying for purchase. On the same day, social public investors can participate in the offering through the trading system of Shanghai Stock Exchange. The minimum subscription unit of each account is 1000 yuan, and the upper limit of subscription is 1million yuan. There is no need to pay the subscription fund at the time of subscription

3. Plan for the use of raised funds

the raised funds from this convertible bond issuance will be used for: 1) construction project of high-end intelligent distribution equipment industrial base, 2) supplementary working capital. The products of the high-end intelligent distribution equipment industrial base construction project include bus duct, energy-saving distribution transformer, distribution station area, intelligent distribution three boxes, etc. they belong to the scope of distribution equipment together with the company's existing main products, but they are applied to different links in the field of distribution. With the continuous development of power equipment industry, the bidding of power distribution side is gradually changing from single equipment bidding to distribution area bidding. After the completion of the project, the company can better meet the diversified needs of downstream customers and provide customers with one-stop design and services

4. Convertible bond terms

the face value of the convertible bond is 100 yuan, the issuance period is 6 years, the six-year coupon rates are 0.3%, 0.5%, 1.0%, 1.5%, 1.8% and 2.0% respectively, the maturity redemption price is 110 yuan (including the last interest), and the corresponding YTM is 2.41%. The credit rating of the debt is aa (China Securities PENGYUAN). Calculated according to the yield to maturity (5.0361%) of the six-year AA corporate debt on November 12, 2019, the pure debt value is 86.16 yuan, and the protection effect of the bottom of the debt is weak

the closing price of the positive stock on November 12, 2019 is 8.63 yuan, the initial conversion price is 8.99 yuan, and the corresponding conversion value is 96.00 yuan. The issuance scale of the convertible bond is 880 million yuan. If the initial conversion price (8.99 yuan/share) is fully converted, the company's circulating share capital will increase by 98 million shares, and the circulating share capital will expand by 23.93%. The convertible bond conversion has great pressure on the overall market

the main terms of the convertible bond are standard: 1) the downward revision condition of the conversion price is: during the duration, the closing price of the company's main shares is lower than 85% of the current conversion price for at least 15 trading days in any continuous 30 trading days. 2) The conditions for conditional redemption are as follows: during the conversion period, the closing price of the company's main shares is not less than 130% of the current conversion price for at least 15 trading days in any continuous 30 trading days. 3) Conditional resale conditions: in the last two interest bearing years, the closing price of the company's main shares for any consecutive 30 trading days is lower than 70% of the current conversion price

5. Pricing and investment suggestions

we select convertible bonds that meet the following three conditions for comparison: 1) the conversion value on November 12, 2019 is between 92 and 100 yuan, 2) the bond balance is less than 5billion yuan, and 3) the debt rating is AA. The premium rate of the seven eligible convertible bonds on November 12, 2019 is mainly in the range of 10% to 19%. Considering that the positive stock volatility of white power convertible bonds is significantly lower than that of comparable bonds, we expect the initial premium rate of white power convertible bonds to be in the range of 10% to 13%, the listing price is in the range of 106 to 108 yuan, and the central is 107 yuan

the shareholders of the company, Hu Mingsen, Hu Minggao, Hu Mingcong, Hu Heyi and Baiyun electric group, promised to participate in the priority placement of this offering, and promised to subscribe for no less than 136 million yuan, 136 million yuan, 136 million yuan, 55 million yuan and 65 million yuan respectively, with a total commitment of no less than 528 million yuan, accounting for 60% of the issuance scale (880 million yuan)

we predict the success rate of Baidian convertible bond issuance based on the issuance of public offering convertible bonds in the last three months. The selected convertible bonds meet the following conditions: 1) the upper issuance date is between August 12, 2019 and November 12, 2019, 2) the issuance scale is less than 5billion yuan, 3) the issuance methods include two kinds (shareholder priority placement, upper issuance, excluding lower placement)

according to the commitment of shareholders to participate in the preferential placement and the recent issuance of public convertible bonds, we estimate that the proportion of shareholders' placement is 60% to 70%, the issuance scale of white power convertible bonds is 880 million yuan, and the amount available for public investors to subscribe is 264 to 352 million yuan. We estimate that the effective subscription amount is 600 to 800 billion yuan, and the winning rate is 0.033%, that is, strengthening the warehousing inspection of raw materials. In short, the excellent performance of phenolic foam; In production, the same product shall be produced with masterbatch and color masterbatch of the same manufacturer and brand as far as possible; Between 0.059% of the chromophore and 0.046% of the center

in general, the company provides electrical equipment and services for rail transit, UHV, intelligent power and other fields, and the funds raised are mainly used to build a high-end intelligent distribution equipment industrial base

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