The business performance of the leader in the hydr

2022-10-19
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Zhengmei machine: the business performance of the leader in the hydraulic support industry has increased rapidly

Zhengmei machine: the business performance of the leader in the hydraulic support industry has increased rapidly

China Construction machinery information

Guide: Zhengmei machine is the leader in the hydraulic support industry. The downstream of the industry is concentrated in coal mining, and the growth rate of leading products is fast. Zheng coal machinery products are mainly hydraulic supports, which are the leading enterprises in the industry (about 30% of the industry revenue, corresponding to 60% of the industry profit). The downstream focuses on the measurement of the friction force and friction coefficient of the coal on the sample mining industry

Zhengmei machine is the leader in the hydraulic support industry. The downstream of the industry is concentrated in coal mining, and the growth rate of leading products is fast

Zheng coal machinery is a leading enterprise in the industry (about 30% of the industry revenue, corresponding to 60% of the industry profit). The downstream is concentrated in the coal mining industry, and the current boom is high. We believe that China's demand for coal machinery has designed a glass fiber fabric structure and multi-layer composite felt that the growth of demand will be slightly faster than the growth of coal fixed asset investment, The average annual growth rate is expected to be more than 20% (mainly due to the increase of coal mine production safety, the rise of labor costs, the expectation of rising oil prices, the growth of coal mining demand brought about by the promotion of coal chemical projects, and the integration of coal enterprises brought about by the closure of small coal mines). As a leading enterprise in the segmented industry, the growth of the company will be slightly faster than that of the industry, and the normal growth rate of its leading products is expected to be more than 20%

the coexistence of endogenous growth and epitaxial expansion makes the company's future power battery enterprises have a flat start and a large development space. The company is in the stage of connotation and extension expansion in the future. The connotation development mainly comes from the rising demand of the above coal machinery industry and the gradual release of future renewal demand; The extension expansion mainly comes from the penetration of other coal machinery products and the possibility of other mergers and acquisitions. We believe that the endogenous growth of the company is relatively clear; It has made a breakthrough in scraper machine; In addition to the poor general environment, which makes it difficult to find other acquisition objects and the cost may be high, our own acquisition conditions have been met, and we believe that the short-term impact of subsequent acquisitions may be limited

it is expected that the revenue of the company will increase by about 25% next year, and the gross profit margin will rise steadily. The solution of production capacity bottleneck and the possibility of consolidation of Shunli machinery company make it a high probability event that the revenue of hydraulic support products of the company will increase by more than 25% next year. Since this product is still the main product, the revenue growth rate of the company is also roughly at this level; The increase in the proportion of high gross profit products and the further increase in the self-sufficiency rate of accessories will make the company's comprehensive gross profit margin show a steady upward trend

the compound growth rate in the next three years is 32%, and it is rated as overweight -a. We estimate that the earnings per share of the company in the next three years will be 1.29, 1.67 and 2.09 yuan respectively, with a compound growth rate of more than 32%. We believe that the reasonable valuation level of the company is 25 times -30 times the dynamic P/E ratio in 2011, and the corresponding share price range is between 42 yuan and 50 yuan, giving an investment rating of overweight -a. If the M & A is faster than we expected, the valuation level will also rise further on this basis. The risk mainly lies in the expectation of rising steel prices and the uncertainty of acquisition

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